WEEKLY NEWSLETTER


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DISCLAIMER

I attempt to get good information and data on which I base my judgement of the market. However, if you have ever listened to any program on investing you know that it's all just opinion in the end. Same here. This is personal opinion about what I feel the market is doing. It relates to the method called Automatic Investment Management (AIM) but that's as far as it goes. I'm an individual, Not Licensed, Not Registered, Not Employed. Some of the stocks mentioned will be one's that I own and most I don't. If you enjoy the reports, good.
Knowing something about AIM will make the reports more meaningful. Have fun, and happy investing.

Week of 06/04/2007
Large Cap. iWave

Current Suggested Cash Reserve For New AIM Accounts Using:
Individual Stocks (& Sector Funds)_______53% Down 1 - OverBought
Stock Mutual Funds (Diversified)________35% Down 1 - OverBought
IW Risk Oscillator____________________"+1" - Rising Risk

I-Wave Large Cap VS S&P500


Small Cap. iWave -

Individual Stocks_____________________57% Unchanged - OverBought
Small Cap. Funds (Diversified)___________38% Unchanged - OverBought
IWSC Risk Oscillator____________________"0.0" - Steady Risk

I-Wave Small Cap VS NASDAQ Composite

(* Note that I am now stating the Small Cap IW in similar fashion to the
Large Cap. It now shows the "raw" total rather than the "smoothed.")

  • Historical Average since 1982 - individual stocks = 41%, mutual funds = 27%
  • All Time High - individual stocks = 74%, mutual funds = 49%, Oscillator = +15; week of 03/20/2000
  • All Time Low - individual stocks = 18%, mutual funds = 12%, Ocillator = -3; week of 10/21/2002

    iWave Large Cap Components:
    Relative Valuation ____ Bearish
    Speculation ____ Neutral
    Divergence (Large and Small Caps) ____ Neutral
    Zeal (Large and Small Caps) ____ Neutral

    iWave Small Cap Components:
    Relative Valuation ____ Bearish
    Speculation ____ Neutral
    (Click for further EXPLANATION)


  • Week of 05/28/2007
    Large Cap. iWave

    Current Suggested Cash Reserve For New AIM Accounts Using:
    Individual Stocks (& Sector Funds)_______54% Down 2 - OverBought
    Stock Mutual Funds (Diversified)________36% Down 1 - OverBought
    IW Risk Oscillator____________________"+1" - Rising Risk

    I-Wave Large Cap VS S&P500


    Small Cap. iWave -

    Individual Stocks_____________________57% Unchanged - OverBought
    Small Cap. Funds (Diversified)___________38% Unchanged - OverBought
    IWSC Risk Oscillator____________________"0.0" - Steady Risk

    I-Wave Small Cap VS NASDAQ Composite

    (* Note that I am now stating the Small Cap IW in similar fashion to the
    Large Cap. It now shows the "raw" total rather than the "smoothed.")

  • Historical Average since 1982 - individual stocks = 41%, mutual funds = 27%
  • All Time High - individual stocks = 74%, mutual funds = 49%, Oscillator = +15; week of 03/20/2000
  • All Time Low - individual stocks = 18%, mutual funds = 12%, Ocillator = -3; week of 10/21/2002

    iWave Large Cap Components:
    Relative Valuation ____ Bearish
    Speculation ____ Neutral
    Divergence (Large and Small Caps) ____ Neutral
    Zeal (Large and Small Caps) ____ Neutral

    iWave Small Cap Components:
    Relative Valuation ____ Bearish
    Speculation ____ Neutral
    (Click for further EXPLANATION)


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    REPORT - WEEK OF 05/28/2007 & 06/04/2007: This is a Double Issue as I took a week of vacation and am just getting caught up. As you can see there's not been any significant changes in the posture of the i-Wave. Both Larger and Smaller Cap. Stocks are still in a risky position for starting new positions or being fully invested.

    The investment spokespersons seem to disagree with the i-Wave. Some say this is just the beginning of a "Growth Stock" era ending 4 years of "Value Stock" tunnel vision. This may be partially true. The problem is that Value Line's P/E still remains very high relative to current interest rates and it includes both value and growth stocks. Earnings need to continue to come in showing very good comparisons to previous quarters and years. If not, there's just no support for such earnings multiples.

    This week also marks a watershed for me. It was 14 years ago I started writing about the i-Wave, market risk and the use of Mr. Lichello's model. About 5 years ago I met an interesting person who was actively managing investment money for clients. His interest was in building a variety of robust investment platforms using principles of Modern Portfolio Theory, cost efficient diversified investments, Mr. Lichello's model and lastly, my market risk indicator. Negotiations have been ongoing for most of that time with only recent agreement being made. This agreement wasn't entered into lightly as I've a loyal readership and bulletin board group which hung in the balance. This agreement is an exclusive one wherein my i-Wave work along with the rest of my efforts are being "taken private." I don't know if there's any "leverage" to this buyout or if it should be considered only a "private equity" deal. In any case, I'm sad to say that this will be the last newsletter presented here at the aim-users.com site.

    The rest of this educational site's pages and histories will remain intact. I plan on freshening them so that they reflect the most current thinking on my part. I guess there's also the possibility that if someone wants to continue to preserve these pages and add to them over time I might consider giving them away. More on that at another time.

    I also wanted to maintain this newsletter at least through the worst of the current High Risk period. I don't know if we're there yet or not, but at least everyone's had adequate warning up until this point.

    The people with whom I'm partnering have literally decades of experience. They started the dialogue because of the massive bear market at the beginning of this decade. They realized their client base contained individuals who had very low risk tolerance and desired investment platforms that would contain downside action to a degree. Several platforms have been developed for both domestic and foreign investing. More will be rolling out over time. If there are any of you who are interested in having a portion of your portfolio professionally managed using their "SignalPoint Portfolio Strategy", you may contact:

    Walnut Capital Management
    (877)869-4422

    They have a retail brokerage as well as the separately managed account (SMA) end of the business. I will be working with the SMA side of the business primarily.

    So, after 21 years of being on my own, 19 years of using Mr. Lichello's AIM exclusively for managing my own portfolio and 14 years blabing about the i-Wave and market risk I'm going to have to start to punch the clock again. For all of you who've followed me on this journey and built your own Equity Warehouses, I wish you continued success. I know you've learned a lot about running your investment activities in a more business-like fashion as Mr. Lichello invisioned. Even if you don't use his methods strictly "by the book" I'm sure you've come to realize that just like in any other business we must buy and sell consistently in a profitable way to grow our Warehouses.

    Yours sincerely,
    Tom Veale

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